News and Analysis
Euro zone will continue to face economic and political headwinds. ECB likely to cut policy rates again in Q1. EURCHF review.
EUR will continue to face economic and political headwinds this year From Standard Chartered: -The trade-weighted value of the EUR has rallied to its highest levels in nearly a year, but we still see this as temporary. In our view, this move has been driven by the liquidation of long-standing investor short positions as tail […] read more »
CPI inflation declined by 0.2%m/m in December (cons -0.1%m/m), keeping the y/y rate at -0.4%. SNB will therefore have to continue its policies in order to ‘normalize’ the economy. EUR/CHF Technicals from RBC Capital Markets: USD/CHF: Rejection of falling wedge top. USD/CHF remains in a downtrend after the recent rejection of a key falling wedge […] read more »
EUR/GBP – Trading idea by RBS Despite the 0.8162 level being broken over the holiday season 0.8223 held firm. 0.8223 was the was the Jan ’12 low as well as catching a lot of the low levels around 2009. It is also the 161.8% projection level from the 1999 - 2003 rally. There are many reasons why that level should continue to hold and provides a […] read more »
Analysis: CHF review From RBC Capital Markets: CHF: As was widely expected, the SNB reiterated its commitment to the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor at its quarterly policy meeting. The 2012 inflation forecast was revised down slightly (-0.1% y/y from 0.2%), but 2014 left unchanged (at 0.4%). -To the extent that inflation is below the SNB’s 2.0% target for the […] read more »
US November employment report unlikely to change Fed’s view on labor market. CAD should benefit from better US job data. GBP moving with the EUR whilst EUR pressured by rate cut expectation.
Analysis: US November employment report unlikelyt to alter Fed’s view on labor market From BarCap Research: -The US non-farm payrolls report had a more positive tone than expected, with a smaller than anticipated impact from hurricane Sandy. While the data support our view that the US labor market is gradually improving, aside from distortions from […] read more »
USD/CHF tried to break the downtrend line earlier, but couldn’t maintain above and retraced back. The first support level stays at 1 month low 0.9210. Breaking this level would lead to another support from Feb.9 low 0.9086. Above current price it’s the resistance 0.9438 which is 1 month high. Breaking this level would bring USD/CHF […] read more »
Swiss National Bank’s Jordan spoke to repeat that the CHF is still highly valued, and should weaken over time. He reiterated that the SNB stands ready to take further measures as necessary. He added that as long as the cap is in line with the SNB’s mandate, there is no ceiling on foreign currency buys. In a report S&P rating […] read more »
EUR/CHF cap right for time being, cost/benefit works in favor of Swiss economy says SNB’s Jordan SNB’s Jordan said that currently implemented regime of capping franc at 1.20 per euro works is fine for time being. He also said that he chose capping franc among other option as cost/benefit works in favor of Swiss economy . […] read more »
With rising house prices in Switzerland and potential of a housing bubble, the Swiss National Bank has been recommending to banks to pay more attention to the risks in their mortgage business. Today however the SNB said that there is no proposal for activation of countercyclical capital buffer against mortgage risk. It cited tighter lending […] read more »
Minutes from the August meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, were released earlier today. The central bank considered that its monetary policy was appropriate and that it would prefer to wait and see ‘yet to be felt’ effects of past easing before committing any new ammunition. It also noted that past easing has been a help […] read more »